Economic Signs Are Fine Amid The Distractions
Published Friday, October 2, 2020, 8:45 p.m. EST
The signs indicate the economy is doing fine. Amid distractions, the latest data depicts a full recovery in the size of the economy in the second half of 2021. Here are the facts.
While President Donald Trump's hospitalization dominates the news and has led to some stock price volatility, the new economic data released this past week shows a reversion to the mean in personal disposable income, spending, and savings, as well as government aid to Americans and the consensus forecast.
The signs indicate the economy could return to the record growth rate of 2019 in the second half of 2021, about six months earlier than previously expected.
The stock market took the unexpected news of the President's infection declining by -0.96% from Thursday's close. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index ended Friday at 3,348.44, a gain of +1.5% from a week ago, snapping a four-week losing streak. The S&P 500 is +39.78% higher than its March 23rd bear market low.
Stock prices have swung wildly since the coronavirus crisis started in March and volatility is to be expected in the months ahead.
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is a market-value weighted index with each stock's weight proportionate to its market value. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted.
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This material represents an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete, and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions.
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